Explanation, prediction, causation – an unholy trinity? Appreciative comments on Philosophy and Methods in Political Science

In this short but critical appreciation of Keith Dowding’s seminal Philosophy and Methods of Political Science I reflect on the distinctive treatment of both realism and explanation in contemporary political science that its author offers, expressing rather more sympath y for the former than the latter. I welcome his critique of the use and misuse of ‘isms’ in much of the existing literature, whilst pointing to some potential inconsistencies; I accept his broad and inclusive understanding of philosophic realism; and I pr aise Dowding for putting the question of explanation – and its adequacy – at the heart of the philosophy of political science (where I think it belongs). Yet I reject the idea that prediction is or, indeed, should be central to all social scientific expla nation. Similarly I take issue with the contention that we are typically distracted by questions of causation, suggesting that the presentation of a ‘credibly causal’ narrative is the crux of adjudicating good from bad explanation. I explore the implicat ions of such a position and conclude with comments on Dowding’s call for the reproducibility and transparency of data

For the common good: Measuring residents\' efforts to protect their community from drug- and sex-related harm

People in high-risk neighbourhoods try to protect their friends, neighbours, relatives and others from the social and physical risks associated with sex and drug use. This paper develops and validates a community-grounded questionnaire to measure such ‘intravention\' (health-directed efforts to protect others). An initial ethnography, including life-history interviews and focus groups, explored the forms of intravention activities engaged in by residents of Bushwick (a high-risk New York City neighbourhood). Grassroots categories of intraventions were derived and questions developed to ask about such behaviours. Face validity and adequacy of the questions were assessed by independent experts. Pre-testing was conducted, and reliability and validity were assessed. An instrument including 110 intravention items was administered to 57 community-recruited residents. Analysis focused on 57 items in 11 domain-specific subscale. All subscales had good to very good reliability; Cronbach\'s alpha ranged from .81 to .95. The subscales evidenced both convergent and discriminant validity. Although further testing of this instrument on additional populations is clearly warranted, this intravention instrument seems valid and reliable. It can be used by researchers in comparative and longitudinal studies of the causes, prevalence and affects of different intravention activities in communities. It can benefit public health practitioners by helping them understand the environments in which they are intervening and by helping them find ways to cooperate with local neighbourhood-level health activists. Keywords: Intravention, drug prevention, harm reduction, community actions, protecting others.SAHARA-J Vol. 5 (3) 2008: pp. 144-15

White noise approach to parabolic stochastic partial differential equations

A certain dass of stochastic partial differential equations of parabolic type is studied within white noise analysis

High serum alkaline phosphatase levels, a study in 181 Thai adult hospitalized patients

BACKGROUND: Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) is an important enzyme mainly derived from the liver, bones and in lesser amounts from intestines, placenta, kidneys and leukocytes. An increase in ALP levels in the serum is frequently associated with a variety of diseases. This study was done in order to determine the diseases associated with a high ALP level among Thai adult hospitalized patients. METHOD: A review was made of medical records of inpatients with high ALP level above 1000 IU/L in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thailand from January 1999 to December 1999. Excluded were cases of (a) patients who have bone involvements with malignancies, (b) pediatric patients younger than 15 years old and c) HIV-seropositive patients. RESULTS: A total of 181 hospitalized patients with eligible medical records were identified (96 males and 85 females, mean age 49.4 ± 16.1 years). Their ALP levels ranging from 1,001 to 3,067 IU/L, these patients were divided into four groups. CONCLUSION: High serum ALP levels in hospitalized patients were commonly found in three major groups having obstructive biliary diseases, infiltrative liver disease and sepsis. The study results were in accordance with previous reports in developed countries. Nonetheless, cholangiocarcionoma and some tropical diseases unique to our setting were also detected in these cases. where there was a marked elevation of serum ALP

MicroRNAs in cardiac arrhythmia: DNA sequence variation of MiR-1 and MiR-133A in long QT syndrome.

Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a genetic cardiac condition associated with prolonged ventricular repolarization, primarily a result of perturbations in cardiac ion channels, which predisposes individuals to life-threatening arrhythmias. Using DNA screening and sequencing methods, over 700 different LQTS-causing mutations have been identified in 13 genes worldwide. Despite this, the genetic cause of 30-50% of LQTS is presently unknown. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small (∼ 22 nucleotides) noncoding RNAs which post-transcriptionally regulate gene expression by binding complementary sequences within messenger RNAs (mRNAs). The human genome encodes over 1800 miRNAs, which target about 60% of human genes. Consequently, miRNAs are likely to regulate many complex processes in the body, indeed aberrant expression of various miRNA species has been implicated in numerous disease states, including cardiovascular diseases. MiR-1 and MiR-133A are the most abundant miRNAs in the heart and have both been reported to regulate cardiac ion channels. We hypothesized that, as a consequence of their role in regulating cardiac ion channels, genetic variation in the genes which encode MiR-1 and MiR-133A might explain some cases of LQTS. Four miRNA genes (miR-1-1, miR-1-2, miR-133a-1 and miR-133a-2), which encode MiR-1 and MiR-133A, were sequenced in 125 LQTS probands. No genetic variants were identified in miR-1-1 or miR-133a-1; but in miR-1-2 we identified a single substitution (n.100A> G) and in miR-133a-2 we identified two substitutions (n.-19G> A and n.98C> T). None of the variants affect the mature miRNA products. Our findings indicate that sequence variants of miR-1-1, miR-1-2, miR-133a-1 and miR-133a-2 are not a cause of LQTS in this cohort

Do Physicians Know When Their Diagnoses Are Correct?

This study explores the alignment between physicians' confidence in their diagnoses and the “correctness” of these diagnoses, as a function of clinical experience, and whether subjects were prone to over-or underconfidence. Design : Prospective, counterbalanced experimental design. Setting : Laboratory study conducted under controlled conditions at three academic medical centers. Participants : Seventy-two senior medical students, 72 senior medical residents, and 72 faculty internists. Intervention : We created highly detailed, 2-to 4-page synopses of 36 diagnostically challenging medical cases, each with a definitive correct diagnosis. Subjects generated a differential diagnosis for each of 9 assigned cases, and indicated their level of confidence in each diagnosis. Measurements And Main Results : A differential was considered “correct” if the clinically true diagnosis was listed in that subject's hypothesis list. To assess confidence, subjects rated the likelihood that they would, at the time they generated the differential, seek assistance in reaching a diagnosis. Subjects' confidence and correctness were “mildly” aligned (Κ=.314 for all subjects, .285 for faculty, .227 for residents, and .349 for students). Residents were overconfident in 41% of cases where their confidence and correctness were not aligned, whereas faculty were overconfident in 36% of such cases and students in 25%. Conclusions : Even experienced clinicians may be unaware of the correctness of their diagnoses at the time they make them. Medical decision support systems, and other interventions designed to reduce medical errors, cannot rely exclusively on clinicians' perceptions of their needs for such support.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74850/1/j.1525-1497.2005.30145.x.pd

Positive deviance control-case life history: a method to develop grounded hypotheses about successful long-term avoidance of infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevalence rates for long-term injection drug users in some localities surpass 60% for HIV and 80% for HCV. We describe methods for developing grounded hypotheses about how some injectors avoid infection with either virus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects: 25 drug injectors who have injected drugs 8 – 15 years in New York City. 17 remain without antibody to either HIV or HCV; 3 are double-positives; and 5 are positive for HCV but not HIV. "Staying Safe" methodology compares serostatus groups using detailed biographical timelines and narratives; and information about how subjects maintain access to physical resources and social support; their strategies and tactics to remain safe; how they handle problems of addiction and demands by drug dealers and other drug users; and how their behaviors and strategies do or do not become socially-embedded practices. Grounded theory and life-history analysis techniques compare and contrast doubly-uninfected with those infected with both viruses or only with HCV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Themes and initial hypotheses emerging from analyses included two master hypotheses that, if confirmed, should help shape preventive interventions: 1) Staying uninfected is not simply a question of social structure or social position. It involves agency by drug injectors, including sustained hard work and adaptation to changing circumstances. 2) Multiple intentionalities contribute to remaining uninfected. These conscious goals include balancing one's need for drugs and one's income; developing ways to avoid drug withdrawal sickness; avoiding situations where other drug users importune you to share drugs; and avoiding HIV (and perhaps HCV) infection. Thus, focusing on a single goal in prevention might be sub-optimal.</p> <p>Other hypotheses specify mechanisms of enacting these intentionalities. One example is finding ways to avoid extreme social ostracism.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have identified strategies and tactics that some doubly-uninfected IDUs have developed to stay safe. Staying Safe methodology develops grounded hypotheses. These can be tested through cohort studies of incidence and prevention trials of hypothesis-based programs to help drug injectors make their injection and sexual careers safer for themselves and others. This positive deviance control-case life history method might be used to study avoiding other infections like genital herpes among sex workers.</p

Circulating markers of arterial thrombosis and late-stage age-related macular degeneration: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation of late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with markers of systemic atherothrombosis. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study of AMD was undertaken in London, UK. Cases of AMD (n=81) and controls (n=77) were group matched for age and sex. Standard protocols were used for colour fundus photography and to classify AMD; physical examination included height, weight, history of or treatment for vascular-related diseases and smoking status. Blood samples were taken for measurement of fibrinogen, factor VIIc (FVIIc), factor VIIIc, prothrombin fragment F1.2 (F1.2), tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor. Odds ratios from logistic regression analyses of each atherothrombotic marker with AMD were adjusted for age, sex, and established cardiovascular disease risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure, body mass index, and total cholesterol. RESULTS: After adjustment FVIIc and possibly F1.2 were inversely associated with the risk of AMD; per 1 standard deviation increase in these markers the odds ratio were, respectively, 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.95) and 0.71 (0.46, 1.09). None of the other atherothrombotic risk factors appeared to be related to AMD status. There was weak evidence that aspirin is associated with a lower risk of AMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide strong evidence of associations between AMD and systematic markers of arterial thrombosis, but the potential effects of FVIIc, and F1.2 are worthy of further investigation

Lorentz-covariant, unitary evolution of a relativistic Majorana qubit

We formulate a covariant description of a relativistic qubit identified with an irreducible set of quantum spin states of a Majorana particle with a sharp momentum. We treat the particle’s four-momentum as an external parameter. We show that it is possible to define an interesting time evolution of the spin density matrix of such a qubit. This evolution is manifestly Lorentz covariant in the bispinor representation and unitary in the spin representation. Moreover, during this evolution the Majorana particle undergoes an uniformly accelerated motion. We classify possible types of such motions, and finally we illustrate the behaviour of the polarization vector of the Majorana qubit during the evolution in some special cases